Are We Actually In A Recession?

These fashion trends say otherwise / Designed by Amira Dossani

Recently, I opened up Instagram to a carousel post of jelly sandals — the ones from the 2000s that look like a cross between orthopedic shoes and toddler footwear — and ‘recession indicator’ was the very first comment. It seems like everything is a recession indicator now: Doechii’s “Anxiety,” the American Psycho reboot, Khloe Kardashian’s protein popcorn, doctors becoming lifestyle content creators — all things that represent a tightening of purse strings.

And these examples barely even touch on how ubiquitous recession indicators are in fashion right now. You may have heard of the ‘Hemline Index:’ the theory that skirt lengths directly correlate to the state of the economy (shorter skirts equal economic prosperity, obviously). It’s unclear how much evidence there is to support this, but it seems anecdotally sound. Google searches for ‘maxi skirt’ reached a five-year peak in March of this year, and I found myself buying two calf-length skirts from Goodwill the other day. Another similar theory,  the ‘Lipstick Index,’ states that sales of lipstick and other relatively affordable luxury goods increase in times of recession because consumers, not being able to afford larger purchases, treat themselves in smaller ways. 

As anyone who has taken ECON 201 may know, the economy goes through periodic expansions and contractions in the short-run (business cycles!), a rhythm that is, in a certain sense, pretty reassuring. Downturns don’t stay downturns, and long-run growth is almost guaranteed. But the question on everyone’s minds seems to be whether we’re actually in a recession right now. Sure, consumer confidence in the economy is shaky (and at a 13-year low), but the actual economic data is less convincing and more volatile. The U.S. economy contracted last quarter, but we’re not quite in official recession territory. 

In the absence of strong economic data, it’s way more interesting to look at miniskirts as a measure of the economy rather than, say, real GDP. The resurgence of trends that were last, well, trending during the 2008 financial crisis could hint at where we’re heading. Back then, business casual counted as going-out wear, but so did indie sleaze. Maybe there’s not really an overarching theory of recession fashion, just a combination of minimalism and a messier, carefree subculture borne out of the desire for affordability. 

So what are the recession indicators of today? A big one is certainly quiet luxury, which everyone is probably tired of hearing about, a trend that emphasizes quality and understatement and is best represented by the Brunello Cucinelli baseball caps and beige Loro Piana cardigans of HBO’s Succession. During times of increased wealth inequality, there is a resulting increase in class consciousness, which would logically make ostentatious displays of wealth more annoying. Quiet luxury doesn’t even have to be expensive, necessarily, just simple in an obvious way. Does anyone else keep seeing Uniqlo summer basics everywhere? 

Back in 2008, Phoebe Philo, who became Céline’s creative director that year, exemplified this kind of minimalism. She brought with her a sense of practicality and simplicity that changed high fashion, and her impact is still evident. Erica Wright, creator of fashion sourcing app Sourcewhere, told Harper’s Bazaar in 2023 that Philo’s collections were “always inspiring but with a sense of practicality, especially at a time when there were fewer brands focusing on designing pieces that could be worn from the school run to meetings and then to a dinner date.” Her designs were perfect for — and symbolic of — the time, when people were more likely to buy clothes that could serve multiple purposes.

And speaking of serving multiple purposes, is business casual at the club a recession indicator? 

This office siren staple is a combination of the two things already mentioned: quiet luxury (nothing screams “I summer in the Hamptons” like well-tailored slacks on a night out… I guess) and versatility. Stella McCartney’s Fall/Winter 2025 collection, aptly titled ‘Laptop to Lapdance,’ featured everything from revealingly cut blazers to modest high-neck dresses. If that’s not proof that business casual is sexy, I’m not sure what is!

While simplicity may be key in recession fashion, that’s because economizing is necessary in these pre-recession times. But there are certainly other ways to not drop $70 on a shirt: thrifting, anyone? Depop, an online marketplace for used clothing, seems to be having a particular revival, especially among the theater-major-meets-sorority-girl south campus crowd. The British app first exploded in popularity around 2015, but as sellers started jacking up their prices, people stopped shopping — until recently, when prices came back down to earth and everyone’s low waisted jeans and graphic baby tees seem to be from the app. 

This phenomenon perhaps explains the rise of indie sleaze during the 2008 financial crisis. As an aesthetic, indie sleaze is famous for its low-maintenance, thrown-together mix of vintage and modern items. Thrifting and indie sleaze go hand-in-hand, and there’s some talk of indie sleaze being back — think Isabel Marant fringe, everything about last year’s Brat summer and the McQueen skull motif. 

Whether it’s indie sleaze or quiet luxury or anything in between, it seems that the trends that characterized the last recession may be back in full force now. It could just be the regular rhythm of trend cycles, but, if not, I suppose I’ll see you at Crossroads.